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Leverage


Total Posts: 167
Member Since:  2/8/2010



3A Pre-Season Outlook  10/13/2017 1:19:05 PM score: 0    hide

Again this year, like last year these are just blatherings of an old man. If you have a different opinion that is ok. Let's talk about it and why you think another way. These are not meant to offend or overlook people. I love wrestling and like to talk about it. It is a way for me to start watching kids that are up and coming. This exercise helps me filter through some of the JV vs JV type matches and become familiar with kids I want to know more about. And highlight some of the kids that you think should be getting more respect.

Let's Start out at 285. In years past I started at the bottom and work up. This year lets start with the Bigs. I think that some great wrestling is going on in the bigger weights this year. 285 is usually a field dominated by upperclassmen. But there are two young studs above the rest of the lot.

1. McGinnis - Gooding: He is big and he is fast. Wrestles like a 160 pounder. With 3 wins over Copley and the state title I think he is the cream of the crop in the big guys division.

2..Copley - Sugar Salem: Freshman last year opened a lot of eyes. He was the real deal. I think that any program that has Brad Hansen in it is bound to have great big boys. Looks like 10-15 years ago when the Sugar Salem big boys dominated.

3. LaRose - Teton: LaRose wrestled 220 half of the year last year. Most were surprised to see him at 285 for districts. He did not qualify for state. I don’t think they make that judgement call again. I think they put him in at 220. I will say that LaRose only lost matches last year to very good kids. I think he will place extremely high at 220 or Heavy. I just think he has a chance at the top spot at 220 where at 285 I think he would place 3rd.

3A. Or better said the Real 3. Ingram - Fruitland - It seems to me that I have been thinking about Ingrams forever in the 285 class. They are big and they are pretty good wrestlers. We will see if in his Senior year, this Ingram Brother, can the find the top of the podium. Senior years seem to bring out the best in kids.

4. Hubler - Snake River: He is big and he is tough. And he is a Senior.

5. Romero - Gooding: It is nice to have one of the best practice partners in the state to help you get better. Just not supper impressed with last season record. He had limited matches and a poor win losses ratio.

6. Not going to name anyone today. Everyone else had close to 50% win loss records. Maybe somebody surprises. Maybe another young buck.

These are guesses. What do you agree with? What do you think is off base? Do we think LaRose really wrestles 220? Feel free to post your own opinions. Lost Farmer, I am looking for your expertise.

7367

Total Posts: 27
Member Since:  8/31/2017



Re: 3A Pre-Season Outlook  10/13/2017 1:58:02 PM score: 0    hide

You are mistaken on why Larose didn't qualify at 285 last year. At districts, he was pinned by Copely and got quite verbal with the referee. He earned a disqualification from districts and the next match, State. He would have secured 2nd place had he been able to accept the defeat a better wrestler handed him. ****Check the records. I think Larose only went 220 at one meet.

7367

Total Posts: 27
Member Since:  8/31/2017



Re: Re: 3A Pre-Season Outlook  10/13/2017 2:03:25 PM score: 0    hide

And... Alan Moulton dropped weight to wrestle 195 and found the pace a bit much for him. Larose wrestled 285 which allowed Moulton to wrestle at 220, a weight he could be competitive at. That move gave the Redskins a pretty solid heavy end. Teton has some big boy freshmen this year. Have to 'weight' and see where Larose ends up.

Leverage


Total Posts: 167
Member Since:  2/8/2010



Re: 3A Pre-Season Outlook  10/14/2017 12:34:59 PM score: 0    hide

I am just going off of what the stats tell me.

LaRose events wrestled at 220:

North Fremont Duals

High Country Duals

Madison Invitational

Teton/Sugar/WJ Quad

And according to what my sources from official weigh-ins - tell me that he never weighed over 220 all year. It was obvious that he was undersized for the weight class. So when I said that "most were surprised to see him at 285 for districts, I should have said, "a select few of old blabbering men thought he would have scored more points for his team at state at 220." I did not mean to reflect Most peoples opinions. I stand corrected.

While McGinnis and Copley are the clear 1 and 2 right now. LaRose is the talk of the weight class because he is good and he could be 285 or 220 and that greatly affects the way things "pre-season" rank. He is a medalist at either weight both last year, had he participated, and this year. I knew why he wasn't at state and didn't think that needed to be rehashed.

Maybe he is a true 285 this year. A big kid like that is probably still growing, it is highly likely that he could have put on 20-30 pounds.

I will claim that these are all just my opinions. I can only claim them to be such. I know I don't have all the facts, or even a minority of them. Just talk. Great feed back. Anyone know the weights of these kids now? Last year, I know McGinnis was big, Copley was small, LaRose was small, Hubler seemed heavy to me, and Ingram was big

Leverage


Total Posts: 167
Member Since:  2/8/2010



Re: 3A Pre-Season Outlook  10/14/2017 6:53:37 PM score: 0    hide

So here we go with 220.

So where do we go? After thinking about 285 for a few more days I have begun to think about all the what ifs.

What if not only LaRose comes down, but what if Copley does as well?If Fagen goes 195, Does Collins also from Fruitland move to 220? And does Wadsen from Sugar? This got very messy in a hurry.

So let just work with what we guess has the highest probabilities. LaRose going down? 50/50. Copley going down? 30/70 he was only like 230 last year. Collins going up I think has more to do with Fagen going up. So Fagen at 182 or 195 is the probably the champ at either weight, unless Hobbs from SF comes up and gives him a run at 182. So what is best for the Fruitland team? Or is Fagen too big to even consider 182 again? Wasden big enough to go to 220? I don’t think so. 4 years at 195 says no to me.

A lot of cause and effect will determine 220. Here are my pure wild guesses.

Needham- Gooding. But only by a slim margin.

LaRose - Teton. I really think he ends up here. But could be wrong. And I think he challenges for #1.

Collins - Fruitland. Big guess here. I think that the top three good wrestlers here. After this it drops off.

Hoobery - Weiser.

Cutburth - Fruitland

Blair - American Falls

Batton - South Fremont. This is my dark horse. He will do better than projected.

Lostfarmer2

Total Posts: 427
Member Since:  12/28/2015



Re: 3A Pre-Season Outlook  10/17/2017 4:10:49 PM score: 0    hide

I like your 285 list.  And you might be correct.  LaRose may have been better at 220.   He also did better against the bigger slower kids where he could use his quickness and length.  He struggled against the really big 285 kids that could move.  McGinnis, Copley for example.  Hubler is a big athlete but raw as a wrestler.  Ingram has to be in the mix provided he is healthy.  After that the depth of the weight falls off pretty quick.

220 Needham has to be the top choice although I would put LaRose ahead of him if he goes 220.  I watched Stewart of Blackfoot get launched at Inter-mountain Warrior by LaRose.  Had they landed in bounds it was 5 points or a pin.  Needham is good but needs to find some offense.  After that 220 is pretty wide open.  I have no idea if LaRose has filled out his frame or not.  He has a big frame and room to pack on 50 lbs without being fluffy.  I don't think Wasden had the size to be 220.  I also don't know how much bigger Fagen will get.  He was a very mature freshman and sophomore so he could be done on the growth curve.  Very hard to tell.  I would guess him at 182.  Collins I would think will be at 195 but that is purely a guess. 

I am curious to see where the 2017 113-120 group falls.  That was a pile of good wrestlers at those weights 3A last year.  Banta, Glider, Lamb, Norman, Knight, Hackworth, Stacey, Cook and for beginners.  Then there are the 106 guys of Hill, Tingey, Evans, and Summers.  You never know how these guys will grow. 

Team wise I see it as Shelley's to lose.  They just have too many big guns with Stacey, Stacey, Call, Lamb, Balmforth, and Balmforth.  Sugar will always give a chase on numbers alone.  Snake River is always solid with the advantage of the 5th district to qualify 18-20 guys.  Fruitland will remain in the hunt but I see them slipping from previous years but again being the class of the 3rd district with Weiser.  I am going to list 2 dark horse teams.  South Fremont and Kimberly as my ones to watch.  They have good young guns.

Leverage


Total Posts: 167
Member Since:  2/8/2010



195  10/21/2017 7:05:21 PM score: 0    hide

Let’s Try 195.

I think that 195 and the ramifications all revolve around Jonathan Fagen of Fruitland.

So lets just get it out of the way. Will he be at 195 or 182? Either one he is the champ. I think he got the lucky drawn in his freshman year to the state finals match. Thought he did a great job last year eating up his field and this year I don’t think there is anyone left to even challenge him.

So here is what I have imagined up in my mind. I see him at 195. Why not go up. His partner Collins moves up to 220. I have already ranked him there. I am most likely wrong. You can argue it. I won’t hold it against you. But for the lack of real knowledge, I offer up some banter.

1. Fagen - Fruitland

2. Wasden - Sugar

3. Kearn - American Falls

4. Morillon - South Fremont

5. May - Marsh Valley

6. Morris - Shelley

I think that Fagen and Kearn go up. Wasden has been not elite but very solid for years. Morillon is hot when he is hot and not when he is not. There is a drop off after the top four. May and Morris have a lot of catching up to the top 4. But no one comes close to the top spot with Fagen with complete dominance here. His challenges this year will come from 4a and 5a and out of state, and not the 3A state finals.

Leverage


Total Posts: 167
Member Since:  2/8/2010



3A Team Race  10/21/2017 8:13:00 PM score: 0    hide

Farmer...

I too am curious about those little weights. A lot of high quality kids packed into very few weights. Should be a fun discussion when we get there. Was hoping that a little more info will shake out about where kids are going, before we get to ranking them.

As far as team race, I too believe that Shelley has a lot of deep point earners. I see D. Stacey and Call at the top, at what weights I don't know. B. Balmforth will be a finalist but where and will he face Boone? I also think Little Stacey will be a finalist. But 98 is hard to know. Sometimes it is all about who weights 85 lbs and who weighs 100 lbs. Little Balmforth and Lamb are all depends where they land in weights. All of them are great wrestlers. Lots of points in the state tournament. There are a lot of points that Shelley can pick up with their 3rd and 4th tier kids too.

Sugar returns as the champs. Only lost 2 seniors on paper. Both seniors got third at state. No real horses. Just solid from top to bottom. I see a ton of 2nds at state. Get enough of them they can win. Two previous champs still on the roster in Marin last year and Norman two years ago and they return lots of state medalist… I tried to count a few months ago, I thinking it was 10. That is a lot of points. Not top tier points but a lot of points none the less. Death by a thousand paper cuts.

Snake River, I think falls just behind Shelley and Sugar. However, I think they are pushed by South Fremont and Fruitland. Summers is a horse. Cook, I put in the Balmforth, Banta, Norman, Hill range. Depending on the weight. That is not a dig on any of these kids. All excellent.

I know most of the board readers think that the young South Fremont team is on the rise. They have a good coach and a good feeder program. Jed Clark is probably my vote for coach of the year. Just getting it out there early so you have time to think about it. Top to bottom they will fill the weights and have good kids that give good effort. They have a horse in Hobbs and I think Banta is one of the most solid technique wrestlers in the state. Then they have a bunch of solid kids to fill around them.

Fruitland has a horse in Fagen. Then a lot of guys like on the Sugar team, good solid kids. Just more 4-6th place guys rather than 2-3. A little bit of a fall off but they always come to the big show ready.

Then, I really like Kimberly team as a whole they are fighters, Gooding their big men score lots of points, and Weiser their team is big and well trained. Not necessarily in this order.

Lostfarmer2

Total Posts: 427
Member Since:  12/28/2015



Re: 3A Pre-Season Outlook  10/23/2017 8:53:41 PM score: 0    hide

If this is indeed where Fagen goes he will walk through and likely pin in the finals.    195 last year was Anderton and the rest way behind.  Morillon is other worldly strong at the weight.  Unfortunately he relies heavily on the strength and forgets to wrestle.  He gets beat by the guy that stays in position and picks him apart. Wasden is solid but I think last year was a bit of a fluke and he comes back to earth. I see Kearn with a bigger upside as well as Morillon.  Morillon needs to commit and he could be in the second spot behind Fagen. 

All that said I think it will be more likely to see Fagen down at 182.  Either weight his his for the taking and I think he will pick the spot where his team will be the most successful. 

Leverage


Total Posts: 167
Member Since:  2/8/2010



195  10/26/2017 12:10:15 PM score: 0    hide

I could be convinced of a Kearn and a Wasden swap. And I think the younger Kearn has more upside. I see that a logical switch. Tho, I am not as high on Morillion. Too undisciplined and wears out too easy. He is crazy strong and I agree that it is to his downfall. If he fixes his weaknesses as a wrestler, he can be ranked higher.

If Fagen doesn't go here. I see this as a very wide open weight.

According to Trackwrestling and the Fruitland Certifications:

Fagen and Bourcy both cert at 182

Collins 220

All of the displayed certifications will change over time because of weight loss allowed per week. However, it could be that Fagen stays at 182 and Bourcy goes 170. Or it could be they give Bourcy 182 and Fagen goes 195. Only time will tell. But Fagen is certified right now according to track wrestling to wrestle 182. Good call farmer.

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