Just wanted to see if anyone else is looking at the potential wild cards spots for the playoffs. I assume the criteria is like last year...top three winning percentages vs. 5A equivilant enrollment schools count.
The SIC is easy since they only play themselves...they all count. Here is what I see from the other schools if my enrollment figures are correct:
North (vs 5A equivilant):
CDA 5-2 (71%)...all games have been against 5A schools
Post Falls 3-2 (60%)...played Lake City, Lewis/Clark (WA), U-High (WA), Mead (WA) Moses Lake (WA)
Lake City 1-3 (25%)...played Madison, Lewis/Clark (WA), Ferris (WA), Post Falls
Lewiston 0-3 (0%)...played Shadle Park (WA), CDA, Wenatchee (WA)
East:
Highland 3-1 (75%)...played East (UT), Ridgeline (UT), CDA, Thunder Ridge
Rigby 2-1 (67%)...played CDA, Thunder Ridge, Madison
Madison 1-3 (25%)...played Lake City, Skyview (UT), Pleasant Grove (UT), Rigby
Thunder Ridge 0-2 (0%)
My thoughts are, the SIC seems pretty set...the top 5 should be Rocky, Mountain View, Eagle, Borah and Capital (in some order). So, the schools to look at for the wild card are:
Timberline 3-4 (43%)
Centenial 2-5 (29%)
Meridian 2-5 (29%)
Skyview 1-6 (14%)
Boise 0-7 (0%)
The East also looks settled with Highland and Rigby having the top two spots wrapped up. To me it looks like Timberline just needs to win one of their final two to clinch a wild card. While Post Falls and CDA will likely be the #1 and #2 from the north, both have already mathematically clinched wild card spots based on their "worst case" 5A records of 5-4 and 3-4 respectively. If Post Falls and CDA take care of business, it looks to come down to the last night of the season. Lake City, Meridian, Centenial and Madison could all be in play for that last spot...could make for fun scoreboard watching.
Anyone see it differently?
There is still a lot of football left to be played here - I follow the East closely so that is where I will comment - Highland still has to go to Madison and Rigby. Both of those teams are capable of beating Highland at home. However, it looks like Madison is a little bit down this year (from their standards). I would suspect that Highland should win that one. That would put Madison in the At Large Category - With their 5A record Madison probably is not in this year. I would not be quick to jump the gun on this yet. The Highland Rigby game this year should be a war.
Well...Madison upsetting Highland has really made things interesting. What I think I know as of today:
Teams that have clinched a "non wild card" playoff spot:
North: Post Falls and CDA...winner this Friday gets the North #1 seed and loser gets the North #2
East: While I think at least Rigby and Highland have clinched a playoff spot, no one has clinched the #1 or #2 spots...all three teams could still win if all of them end up with 2-1 records. Not sure how they break that tie over there.
West:Rocky (clinched 1st), Borah, Mountain View, Capital. I believe Eagle and Timberline have clinched playoff spots, but one of them will be down in the "At Large" discussion and 1 will end up either the 4 or 5 seed.
At Large:
East: Very interesting...again, not sure how the East breaks a tie if there is one. If Rigby beats Highland and Madison beats Thunder Ridge, it is simple. Rigby #1, Madison #2 and Highland jumps in the At Large standings. If Highland wins and Madison loses, it is also simple. Highland #1 and Rigby #2 with Madison and Thunder Ridge in the At Large discussion. If Highland wins and Madison wins...they have to break a 3 way tie and Thunder Ridge would be mathematically eliminated from playoff contention.
North: Lake City has to beat Lewiston and hope to end up in a multi-way tiebreaker for the last At Large spot.
West: As noted above, Eagle and Timberline will be in the playoffs, we just don't know which will be a seeded team and which will be in the At Large discussion. Meridian is also in the hunt for an at large.
Should be an interesting Friday night!
If Rigby beats Highland, which is definitely possible, will they have a Kansas City to determine seeding correct?
Only if Thunder Ridge beats Madison. If Rigby and Madison win, Rigby would be 3-0, Madison 2-1, Highland 1-2 and Thunder 0-4. Now if Rigby wins and Madison loses, you'd have Ridby at 3-0 and three teams tied at 1-2...they'd have to break that tie.
My guess is that Highland gets a wildcard....